This year, finally, international tourism will leave behind the collapse caused by the pandemic. The good expectations seem to have been fulfilled in the summer and, compared to the year 2022, the speech is triumphalist. But it is worth remembering what the pandemic meant for the arrival of international tourists. Graph 1 shows the monthly evolution of tourist arrivals to Spain in the last 5 years. Between July and September 2021, only 50% of the 2019 records had been reached and it was not until October 2022 when this flow has stabilized. In the first nine months of 2023, international tourists who have arrived in Spain are almost at the 2019 figure, only 0.6% below.
The recovery maintains the high concentration of tourism activity in six autonomous communities, in this order: Catalonia, the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Andalusia, Valencia and the Community of Madrid. The share of these six regions is 90.3% and although the ranking has not changed, changes are observed. The most relevant is the lower number of arrivals to Catalonia compared to 2019 and an opposite, upward trend in the Valencian Community and the archipelagos. For the rest, the intense growth of the Cantabrian area stands out.
The main motivation of tourists who visit Spain continues to be for “leisure”, in accordance with our country’s specialization in sun and beach tourism. But business tourism is at a level 15.6% lower than the maximum in 2019. The slowness in the recovery of this type of tourism could be due to the massive use of videoconferencing and online work; a factor that possibly also contributes to the fact that tourist arrivals for studies are 17.4% lower than before the pandemic. These falls are even greater in Catalonia, although what really explains their figures is the loss of almost a million vacation tourists. If this trend is temporary or the product of a change in preferences, it should be analyzed with more data. We must not forget that Barcelona is one of the European cities that, along with Venice or Dubrovnik, presents the most problems in relation to overtourism.
The growth of tourist apartments is a growing phenomenon in many cities. In Malaga, the majority (56.1%) of market tourist accommodation places are already Tourist Use Housing (VUT). The average of the 20 Spanish municipalities with the largest offer of tourist accommodation is 26%; Madrid and Barcelona are at 29.9% and 28.5%, respectively; and, at the other extreme, in Palma de Mallorca only 10% of the places are in VUT, due to the ban imposed in 2018 on vacation rentals except in chalets or single-family homes.
International tourism practically reaches tourist arrivals in 2019 and clearly exceeds real average daily spending; but not everything remains the same. The outlook presents room for improvement based on the possible future evolution of the Chinese market.
Regarding traditional source markets, the United Kingdom and Germany continue to lose share, but France shows strong dynamism. Almost half of the tourists (47.4%) come from these three markets. The most evident change in the sending markets is the increase in American tourists (14.7% for those from the US and 26.1 for the rest of America), which now represent 10% of the total. The Community of Madrid has received 41.5% of them, which contributes to making it the community with the highest average daily expenditure (followed by Catalonia and the Basque Country). In fact, only these three communities exceed €200 in average daily spending. The American quota drives growth in real average daily spending[1] which, compared to 2019, has grown by 2%, above the increase in tourist arrivals.
In reality, tourists in the “rest of the world” category[2] are the ones who spend the most. Asian markets were still a long way from reaching the 2019 level; especially China, due to its zero Covid policies. Throughout 2023, these measures have been softened—and eliminated in August—so the flow of these tourists is expected to grow in the coming months.
In conclusion, international tourism practically reaches tourist arrivals in 2019 and clearly exceeds real average daily spending; but not everything remains the same. Among the changes observed are: i) weak results in both arrivals and spending in the leading destination (Catalonia), and ii) a strong increase in American tourists, with higher average daily spending. This panorama shows room for improvement, since an intense increase in tourists from China is expected. All of this allows us to be optimistic regarding the results of the sector for 2024, although without ignoring the current complicated international geopolitical reality.