Smartphone sales are far from their golden moment. After a peak of almost 550 million units distributed at the end of 2017 as a record quarter, a bearish period arrived, consolidated by the pandemic and chronicled since we were still greeting each other with the elbow: we have been 27 months with declining sales.
Until now, as published by the market consulting firm Counterpoint Research, this dynamic has changed: October was the first month in many moons that saw a year-on-year increase in smartphone sales, breaking the streak of two years and three months in a tailspin.
A green shoot after 27 months in decline
Last October also marked the highest month for smartphone sales in a month since January 2022. These are preliminary figures from a consulting firm, which does not have access to official data from manufacturers but only to market estimates, but they are nonetheless a respite in a market that had been down for too long.
At the quarterly level, a certain stabilization was already predicted. The third quarter of this year, which closed at around 300 million units shipped, was practically identical to the same quarter of the previous year. Not bad after such a long period of decline.
By the end of the fourth quarter, which began in October, we will see how this year has closed and whether it has been able to maintain October’s momentum. There are reasons to think so: the October signal itself and the arrival of the iPhone 15s. The iPhone always livens up the market in every last quarter (from a 16% market share to 23% last year, for example), and the iPhone 15s have been a much bigger leap than the iPhone 14s were.
The 14 was a clone of the 13 with two residual improvements, and the 14 Pro didn’t bring much new either. This year we have a 15 with USB-C and software emulated 2x lens, plus a 15 Pro Max with 5x lens and chassis material change.
There is reason to believe that the last quarter of 2023 will bring even more joy for sales.
Or at least stability after a storm of more than two years.
Here’s the breakdown by manufacturer of sales for each quarter. Nothing new under the sun: Samsung continues to lead steadily, although with the occasional quarter (the launch of the new iPhone) leaving that leadership in the hands of Apple. Xiaomi is in third place, although Oppo is increasingly competing more directly, and Vivo is stable in fifth place.
For 2024, the manufacturers’ greatest desire is surely, in addition to growth, a certain prolonged stability. The pandemic dented demand for devices and ended up causing a shortage of components that was a nightmare for brands, which could not meet demand and lost a lot of revenue along the way.
The Middle East and Africa have been the protagonists of this small green shoots in the market, and have ended up tipping the balance towards growth. We must also take into account China and more specifically Huawei, very weak globally but with sales in its country of origin that have rebounded by 37% in the last quarter. If anyone wants to thank the person in charge they can start looking at the Mate 60 Pro.